West Africa’s Power Gap = Private-Capital Alpha

An investor’s deep dive into energy production, costs, coverage, and deficits in Mauritania, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, and Burkina Faso

West Africa’s power market is a classic emerging-infrastructure story: fast-rising demand, thin grids, high thermal fuel exposure, and clear policy signals inviting private capital (IPPs, DFIs, blended finance). Below we map the opportunity country-by-country—with the latest on how electricity is produced, what it costs, who actually has access, and where the supply gap is widest.

Snapshot: Key metrics (2023–2025)

*Gas-to-power step-ups are pending in Mauritania via the revived Banda project and GTA offshore gas timeline. (Global Energy Monitor, Energy Capital & Power)

Country drill-downs & investor angles

1) Mauritania — gas + wind + solar, with IPP-friendly signals

How power is made today. SOMELEC’s fleet blends thermal (HFO/diesel) with fast-ramping renewables. By end-2024, installed capacity reached ~615 MW; generation was 56% fossil and 44% renewables (hydro 27%, wind 13%, solar 4%). The flagship Boulenouar wind farm (≈102 MW) is the country’s largest wind asset. (World Bank, mauritaniaenergy.com)

Costs. Average electricity prices hover around $149/MWh on Climatescope; household tariffs ~6.7¢/kWh are kept low by subsidies—leaving the utility structurally loss-making and in need of private capital and reforms. (Climatescope, Enerdata)

Coverage & deficit. Only ~50% of the population had access in 2023, with big rural gaps—hence the push for mini-grids, storage, and green-hydrogen-adjacent infrastructure. (Trading Economics)

Pipeline & policy. Gas monetization is back. Banda gas-to-power PPAs and the GTA field underpin a strategy to firm variable renewables and add ~300 MW of gas-fueled capacity to Nouakchott. The government has also pivoted to IPP-led new build—a clear private-capital green light. (GOGASHolding, Energy Capital & Power, African Energy)

Thesis. Bankable IPP structures around gas-firmed wind/solar (plus BESS) and rural mini-grids. De-risk via long-tenor DFIs and indexed capacity payments while tariff reform catches up.

2) Liberia — hydropower-led, but seasonal; imports stabilize the grid

How power is made today. Liberia’s system is small and fragile: 126 MW nameplate (88 MW Mount Coffee hydro; 38 MW HFO), with peak demand ~108 MW—but hydro seasonality creates dry-season deficits. The CLSG interconnector allows imports (mainly from Côte d’Ivoire) to smooth the curve. Recent statements peg renewables at ~70% of generation (hydro/solar), but imports rise in the dry months. (The World Bank, Ecofin Agency)

Costs. Tariffs are actively regulated: Social customers $0.15/kWh; residential around $0.24/kWh (with modest fixed charges). Some 2025 notices cited up to $0.45/kWh—illustrating the volatility and the need to ring-fence end-user affordability in PPAs. (lerc.gov.lr, Facebook)

Coverage & deficit. Access remains ~32–33% (2023), with system adequacy tight in the dry season. Imports via CLSG are now an operational pillar, and the government has committed to timely CLSG payments to keep flows stable. (Macrotrends, The World Bank)

Thesis. Run-of-river upgrades, small hydro, solar-plus-storage, and commercial/industrial (C&I) rooftop PPAs can displace HFO and reduce import reliance. Structuring around seasonal capacity factors (and carbon revenue at Mount Coffee, newly registered) adds resiliency. (globalcarboncouncil.com)

3) Côte d’Ivoire — regional anchor, scaling low-carbon baseload

How power is made today. CI’s grid is West Africa’s workhorse: ~2,548 MW with a gas-heavy mix (~70%) and hydropower (~30%), plus a growing slate of utility-scale solar and biomass (e.g., Boundiali 80 MW solar). (Trade.gov, lowcarbonpower.org, Le Monde.fr)

Costs. Efficient gas fleet + hydro translates to weighted production cost ≈ $0.09/kWh; retail is ~$0.143/kWh (with a 10% tariff adjustment implemented Jan 1, 2024). (Trade.gov, GlobalPetrolPrices.com, economie-ivoirienne.ci)

Coverage & balance. Access is high and still climbing (~87% in 2023). Critically, Côte d’Ivoire is a net power exporter—~0.94–1.05 TWh to neighbors through WAPP/CLSG—making it the anchor for sub-regional stability and a bankable cross-border offtake counterparty. (World Bank Open Data, Trade.gov, Gas for Africa)

Thesis. Gas-peaking + solar/biomass baseload hybrids and export-linked IPPs (with regional take-or-pay) to leverage CI’s strong utility platform and credit enhancements.

4) Burkina Faso — the region’s most urgent gap: thermal-heavy, solar-rising

How power is made today. Thermal (HFO/diesel) dominates; solar PV has accelerated (to ~226 MWp by 2024), but integration and grid strength lag. Imports through WAPP are essential. (World Bank)

Costs. Despite some social blocks, real-world bills bite: residential tariffs ≈ $0.22–$0.23/kWh (SONABEL’s stepped schedule applies), and fuel exposure inflates system costs. (GlobalPetrolPrices.com, SONABEL)

Coverage & deficit. Only ~21–22% of the population had access in 2023; peak demand was 484 MW vs. 270 MW domestic capacity in 2023—a 214 MW gap covered by imports. (Future of Energy, African Energy)

Thesis. Utility-scale solar + BESS near load centers, hybridization of thermal plants, and distributed C&I can cut the import/fuel bill fast. Structuring with currency indexation, curtailment protections, and multilateral guarantees is key in today’s macro backdrop.

What this means for investors

1. Scale is coming from firmed renewables. Gas (Mauritania; Côte d’Ivoire) + solar/wind + storage is the winning stack. Where hydro dominates (Liberia), dry-season hedges via solar-plus-BESS and imports are the quickest wins. (The World Bank, Energy Capital & Power)
2. Tariff politics ≠ deal breaker. Climatescope/Enerdata data and live LERC/SONABEL schedules show room for cost-down vs. diesel/HFO, especially with FX-indexed capacity payments and DFI wraps. (Climatescope, Enerdata, lerc.gov.lr, SONABEL)
3. WAPP interties de-risk offtake. Côte d’Ivoire’s exporter status and CLSG flows provide regional credit backstops—power can be sold across borders if local demand or payment discipline wobbles. (Trade.gov, Gas for Africa)
4. Fast-track opportunities (next 12–24 months).
   • Mauritania: IPP gas-to-power linked to Banda/GTA, co-sited wind/solar-BESS, and mini-grid portfolios aligned with the Mission 300 universal-access push. (Global Energy Monitor, World Bank)
   • Liberia: Solar-BESS for dry-season firming; C&I rooftop PPAs; grid-connected mini-grids with CLSG backstop; potential carbon co-benefits around Mount Coffee. (The World Bank, globalcarboncouncil.com)
   • Côte d’Ivoire: Export-linked IPPs (gas peakers + RE baseload), biomass fuel-switch (agri-residues), and utility-scale solar under proven regulatory regimes. (Trade.gov, Le Monde.fr)
   • Burkina Faso: 100–300 MW of solar-BESS near Ouaga/Bobo, thermal-hybrid retrofits, and concession mini-grids—all with strong DFI appetite and BOAD/World Bank momentum. (World Bank, Trade.gov)

Risk map (and how to price it)

• FX & tariff adequacy: Build USD-indexed capacity payments, fuel pass-throughs, and partial risk guarantees (PRGs). Mauritania’s subsidies and SONABEL’s cost stack require credit wraps. (Enerdata)
• Seasonality & curtailment: Hydrology (Liberia) and intermittency (solar/wind everywhere) argue for contracted storage, reserve margin adders, and curtailment compensation. (The World Bank)
• Execution & policy drift: Favor countries leaning into IPP frameworks (Mauritania’s shift, Côte d’Ivoire’s track record). Structure step-in rights and government support letters. (African Energy)
• Fuel price shocks: Displace HFO/diesel with PV+BESS and gas peakers. Burkina Faso’s import/fuel dependency is the fastest cost-down target. (African Energy)

Bottom line

• Côte d’Ivoire is your regional anchor: robust offtaker, export optionality, and a clear path to scale low-carbon baseload. (Trade.gov)
• Mauritania offers the highest beta to gas-firmed renewables plus mega-project optionality (GTA, Banda, wind/solar). (Energy Capital & Power, Global Energy Monitor)
• Liberia is a seasonality arbitrage: solar-BESS + CLSG imports to shave HFO and stabilize tariffs. (The World Bank)
• Burkina Faso is the impact-plus-returns play: the biggest access gap and the clearest case for solar-BESS to replace costly thermal and imports. (African Energy)

Invest Offshore currently has live energy and infrastructure opportunities in West Africa—and capital openings tied to the Central African Copperbelt—seeking aligned investors.