As of August 2025, all three markets are off their pandemic peaks, but they’re correcting at different speeds—and with very different entry costs, policies, and risk profiles. Vancouver remains Canada’s priciest market on a per-square-foot basis, Toronto offers the biggest near-term price dislocation (and therefore negotiating leverage), and Hong Kong is ~30% below its 2021 peak yet still commands world-class prices per square foot in core stock. (WOWA, Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, Reuters)
Price snapshot (July 2025 unless noted)
- Vancouver (Metro)
- MLS® HPI Composite benchmark: C$1,165,300 (-2.7% y/y).
- Detached benchmark: C$1,974,400; Townhouse: C$1,099,200; Apartment: C$743,700.
- Downtown condo ~C$1,206/ft² (H1 2025). (WOWA, members.gvrealtors.ca, Business in Vancouver)
- Toronto (GTA)
- MLS® HPI Composite benchmark: ~C$979,000 (-5.4% y/y).
- Average selling price: C$1,051,719 (-5.5% y/y).
- Condo resale in newly completed towers averaging ~C$903/ft² (Q2 2025); presale averages ~C$1,187/ft²—a notable gap. (Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, urbanation.ca)
- Hong Kong
- Government index shows prices near 2016 lows, roughly ~30% below 2021 peak; April–May saw a shallow uptick (0.4% then 0.03%).
- Centa-City Leading Index (CCL, 3 Aug 2025): 137.19.
- RVD average for 40–69.9 m² flats (Q1 2025): HK$132,130/m² (~HK$12,275/ft²) ≈ US$1,568/ft². (Reuters, MacroMicro, Global Property Guide)
What’s driving the gap?
1) Policy & buyer access
- Canada tightened, Hong Kong opened. Canada extended its federal foreign-buyer ban to Jan 1, 2027; B.C. still levies a 20% additional property transfer tax on foreign buyers in major regions, while Ontario adds a 25% NRST province-wide—and Toronto now layers a 10% municipal NRST on top. Net: foreign capital faces meaningful friction in both Vancouver and Toronto. (Government of Canada, Government of British Columbia, Cassels, KPMG)
- Hong Kong removed “cooling measures.” As of 28 Feb 2024, the city scrapped extra stamp duties on non-permanent residents and second-home buyers; standard ad valorem duty (Scale 2) still applies. This improves entry liquidity, albeit in a soft economy. (JSM, AP News)
2) Rates, supply, and sentiment
- Toronto: Sales rebounded in July (strongest July since 2021), but prices remain under pressure with multiple months of HPI declines; condo resale values have slipped far below presale levels, creating negotiation room and settlement risk. (Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, Reuters, urbanation.ca)
- Vancouver: Benchmarks are easing across segments, but the city still tops Canada by $/ft² thanks to global demand and tighter land constraints. (Business in Vancouver, CityNews Vancouver)
- Hong Kong: Prices have stabilized marginally in spring but remain subdued; the CCL hovers in the high-130s amid weak macro and higher real rates versus the peak era. (Reuters, MacroMicro)
How far does your money go?
- C$1 million budget
- Vancouver: Typically buys a 2-bed older condo or a newer 1-bed+den in central submarkets; at ~C$1,200/ft² downtown, you’re around 830 ft² before closing costs. (Business in Vancouver)
- Toronto: Citywide condo average price ~C$651k (Q2/Q3 window), with many newer resales under C$1,000/ft²; 1–2 beds across a wider swath of neighbourhoods fit sub-C$900/ft². (Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, WOWA)
- Hong Kong: Core private flats at ~HK$12,000–13,000/ft² imply ~HK$12–13M for a 1,000 ft² equivalent (rarer in core districts); more typical urban units are 250–600 ft² given price density. (Global Property Guide)
Taxes & transaction costs (foreign buyers)
- Vancouver (B.C.): 20% additional property transfer tax for foreign buyers in major regions, on top of standard PTT tiers; federal ban presently blocks most non-Canadians until 2027. (Government of British Columbia, Government of Canada)
- Toronto (Ontario): 25% NRST province-wide; extra 10% in the City of Toronto (MNRST) for non-residents; federal ban to 2027. (Cassels, City of Toronto, Government of Canada)
- Hong Kong: Since Feb 2024, no BSD/NRSD/SSD; normal ad valorem duty (Scale 2) applies (up to 4.25%). Market access for offshore buyers is materially easier than in Canada. (JSM)
Investor takeaways
- Value vs. velocity:
- Toronto condos show the clearest price gap (resale vs. presale), a setup historically favourable for disciplined buyers and cash-flow hunters willing to underwrite completion risk and elevated carrying costs. (urbanation.ca)
- Vancouver retains scarcity pricing. If you need core West Coast exposure and can clear taxes/ban constraints (e.g., exemptions), buy quality on quiet streets and be patient on entry. (Business in Vancouver)
- Hong Kong has re-opened to global capital and sits well below peak; for long-term holders who want Asia gateway exposure tied to the USD peg, selectively bidding developer inventory can capture discounts—but size and financing matter. (JSM, Reuters)
- Policy asymmetry matters more than comps:
A buyer who is ineligible under Canada’s federal ban has effectively zero access to Vancouver/Toronto (absent exemptions or structures), while Hong Kong now welcomes offshore purchasers (standard stamp duty only). This asymmetry, not just sticker price, is the decisive factor in 2025. (Government of Canada, JSM) - Use price-per-foot to normalize across products:
- Vancouver downtown condos: ~C$1,206/ft² (H1 2025).
- Toronto new-build resales: ~C$903/ft² (Q2 2025).
- Hong Kong core mass flats: ~HK$12,275/ft² (Q1 2025).
Your “real” price depends on micro-location, age, and layout; stick to verified comps within 3–6 months. (Business in Vancouver, urbanation.ca, Global Property Guide)
Bottom line
- Cheapest entry (2025): Toronto—largest discount vs. new-build replacement cost.
- Highest $/ft² in Canada: Vancouver—pricing power persists even through a soft patch.
- Re-opened global market: Hong Kong—policy tailwind but macro/rate headwinds linger; still one of the world’s most expensive markets on a per-foot basis. (urbanation.ca, Business in Vancouver, JSM)
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