Q: You seem to have a healthy respect for Martin Armstrong’s work. He’s made some spectacularly correct predictions. What is his current position on the gold market, and do you agree with him?
A: We seem to get the same results for different reasons. He works with cycles and compiled a database and developed the programming to use it effectively. His accomplishment is unprecedented. In addition to his business success, his academic credentials are in computer science, so he built his system on a very solid foundation.
A: Yes and no. His fundamental analysis was very good: the US dollar was being deliberately depreciated by agreement with trade partners in order to rebalance current account deficits. He wasn’t the only one predicting trouble. What made his reputation was that on the day of the low, he publicly advised his clients to close short positions and go long because the low was in and now there would be new higher highs. He did this in real time on Black Monday. He was fearless and correct. He understood both economic law and trading. His economic confidence model is an application of the fundamental economic law that all value is subjective.
Q: What is his current position on the gold market?
A: You can buy his reports and find out from the source. I read his blog daily but do not attend his conferences or buy his reports. What he writes in his blog suggests that he’s expecting one more wave up and then a final wave down. This is consistent with my current reading of the evolving wave pattern
Q: Do you recommend that I read Martin Armstrong’s blog?
A: If, after reading Rothbard and Mises, you feel the need for further education and updates on current market developments, I suggest you follow the works of Celente, Armstrong, and Marc Faber. I read Armstrong’s blog because it is the very best educational information on economic history. I do not read it for market timing.
Q: If I do that, will I be able to trade successfully?
A: Understanding all of it will cover the mental issue: having the correct thought pattern. This is the right place to start. If you don’t clearly understand, if your thoughts are muddled, it’s unlikely you’ll be able to make a decision. You may freeze like a deer staring at the headlights of an oncoming truck.
Q: What else do I need?
A: The mental issue is one third of the equation. The other two thirds are emotion and physical. Not everyone is suited to speculate with large sums of money. Control over the emotions is essential. There are also three levels of knowing: mental, emotional, and physical. To consistently trade well, your knowledge level must be extensive. You need to be able to do everything physically needed, and that requires training with someone who can, which is a subject beyond the scope of this blog. It will be the subject of my next book.
Market Commentary (above) by Arthur Fixed
[box type=”info” style=”rounded” border=”full”]Commentary from Arthur Fixed the author of the Art of Speculation during Civil War – Sun Tzu Meets Jesse Livermore is a private manuscript copyrighted 2012 by Art Fixed.[/box]
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