Price of Gold
Q: Can you give us an update on how close we are to the end of the bear market in Price of Gold?
A: We get closer every day. That much is for sure. My best guess is the low will occur a month and a half to three and a half months from now.
Q: The general shares market has recovered the panic plunge of three months ago. Does this make you reconsider your position?
A: It’s certainly an important factor that requires analysis. The question is whether or not the recovery voids one of the four factors I use to call the low. Maybe it does. However, at some point, if we have a crack-up boom, the shares will trade as a call on the hard assets of the companies involved. In that case, the shares and gold will go up in tandem. Still, I haven’t called the low and turn yet. I expect to know when it has happened, not when it will happen. My previous best guess on timing is just that: a guess, not a prediction.
Q: What do you suggest I do in the meantime, while I’m waiting for your call that the bear is over and a new bull in gold has started?
A: If you haven’t already, I suggest you buy, read, and study Ludwig von Mises’ Human Action.
Q: And after that?
A: Same thing for Murray Rothbard’s Man, Economy and State.
Q: And, after that?
A: You can visit YouTube and enjoy videos published by Gerald Celente, David Stockman, Martin Armstrong, Peter Schiff, and Marc Faber.
Q: Why have you put the works of two deceased economists over the work of five live writers?
A: There are many reasons. The biggest problem with reading about economic issues is that 97% of everything published is deliberate propaganda designed to mislead the reader.
Q: How do I get around that?
A: A 35-page Q&A in the back of my book explains this in clear detail for the Price of Gold. For most people, it may be the place to start studying economics (The Art of Speculation during Civil War – Sun Tzu Meets Jesse Livermore). Economic law is based on individual human action, which in turn is based on human psychology, and human psychology hasn’t changed significantly in at least three thousand years. Everything Frédéric Bastiat wrote is just as valid today as it was when he made his observations some two hundred years ago. Nothing written before or since Mises’ and Rothbard’s treatises is more complete. If you understand these two texts, you won’t be fooled by the 97% that is propaganda.
If you don’t, you may not be able to fully appreciate the greatness of the five current star economists. Understanding Mises’ and Rothbard’s works is eighty percent of what you need to be a competent financial analyst and trade the market successfully. The five living writers just share twenty percent of the equation between them. There is no shortcut. Economic law is unforgiving. You cannot change it, just like you cannot change the law of gravity. But you can learn to control your own conduct in trading and investing so that the laws of economics help you succeed.
Market Commentary (above) by Arthur Fixed
[box type=”info” style=”rounded” border=”full”]Price of Gold Commentary from Arthur Fixed the author of the Art of Speculation during Civil War – Sun Tzu Meets Jesse Livermore is a private manuscript copyrighted 2012 by Art Fixed.[/box]