MOSCOW. Sept 1 (Interfax) – Investing in stocks could be the best way for investors to make the most money on the Russian financial market in September, as it was in August, Interfax Center for Economic Analysis analysts said.
Analysts said the S&P/RUX composite index could grow 4%-5% to 234- 236 by the end of the month. The benchmark RTS stock market index could grow to 920-930 by the end of September. Unified Energy System (UES) stocks will likely be worth 35-36 cents, Lukoil could grow to $50-$51 and Gazprom could be at 110-111 rubles a share, the experts said.
The analysts said the most positive factors for the Russian market are: increased activity from foreign investors who will likely continue to invest in Russian stocks in the expectation that international rating agencies will improve Russia’s long-term foreign currency rating; favorable trends on world raw material markets; and a large amount of available ruble resources that will not likely decrease amid an expected large inflow of export receipts to Russia. The expected liberalization of the market for Gazprom shares and the privatization of Svyazinvest will also play a positive role.
The corporate bond market will also likely be favorable for investors in September. The experts said the most attractive investments will be second and third-tier stocks, which have a potential for a drop in yield amid large demand, since the further drop in interest rates for blue chips is very limited.
The only thing that could partially hold prices back are active issuers on the primary market, since there are already corporate issues planned for 20 billion-25 billion rubles in September.
The US dollar could grow by 5-10 kopecks to 28.60-28.65 rubles/$1 in September, the experts said. This will likely take place as the dollar strengthens on the Forex market. The Central Bank will also help the dollar on the Russian market investing stocks as it will intervene in Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (MICEX) trading by sweeping up excess dollars from a significant amount of incoming foreign currency receipts. This is connected to stable high world prices for Russian core export products (oil, gas and metals).
The euro will likely lose 10-15 kopecks to 34.75-34.80 rubles/1EUR in September as it follows the world market, where the euro could drop to $1.215 against the dollar by the end of September. Euro trading will grow noticeably on the Russian market compared to August, since the Central Bank started taking an active part in euro trading on the MICEX at the end of August. The Central Bank is following the policy of pegging the exchange rate of the ruble to the bi-currency euro/dollar basket.
Prices for ruble-denominated government debt bonds will fall as prices correct after an August rally, the experts said. Sales will take place amid low yield for these bonds, which are not attractive for most potential investors especially amid higher inflationary expectations. However, there will not likely be a significant growth in OFZ federal loan bond offers as this segment of the market will remain illiquid on the whole.
The Finance Ministry plans to pay a relatively large amount of about 20.574 billion rubles on the government debt on September 14. This includes maturing OFZ-FD 27018 for 14 billion rubles, as well as coupon payments on a number of issues. Russian market experts said part of these funds could be used again to buy OFZ, therefore the monetary authorities are planning to hold two auctions on September 14 in order to scoop up excess rubles. The MinFin will place two of its most liquid OFZ issues on that day – series 46017, maturing in 2016, for 6 billion rubles at face value, and series 46018, maturing in 2021, for 8 billion rubles.
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