Category: Precious Metals
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Last leg down for Gold
Q: Are we now in the last leg down for gold? You indicated in your blog post on February 12, 2016, that we were in the last rally but had one more down leg to go. Are we in that down leg now? A: Most likely yes. It certainly feels like it. We will know…
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World’s Largest Gold Mining Company
Q: I see that ABX, the world’s largest gold mining company by sales, has doubled in share price from its low four and a half months ago. What do you make of that? Have we missed the low? A: Maybe for ABX. Gold share prices do not all bottom at the same time; they never…
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Gold and silver are known; all else is credit
As J. P. Morgan famously said: Gold and silver are known; all else is credit. The gold price is fixed twice each business day in London. It’s called the London AM or PM Fix. Many contracts reference the London Fix to set a price for future gold delivery. It may be that the bullion dealers…
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Are Markets Fixed?
Are global markets fixed? They could be, but maybe not the way that you think. I considered titling this paper “How I Turned Ten Thousand into Five and a Half Million in Less Than a Year Trading Gold Futures and Options on Gold Shares.” But I actually started with twenty thousand, of which I lost…
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Gold Market Speculation
Q: I understand why you don’t make predictions: it is unnecessary and ineffective. You only need to know that the low for the gold market happened when it happens. And, you don’t want to divide your attention unnecessarily as that decreases the quality of your analysis. These are all very good reasons. However, you have…
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Criteria for calling the low in gold
Q: How do divergences relate to the four criteria for calling the low in gold? A: They don’t make the top four list but they’re helpful for refining the analysis. Take a look at bigcharts.marketwatch.com. Junior silver mining shares represented by this index have taken a huge plunge over the last 15 trading days. Silver…
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Gold investment sentiment indicators
Q: Thank you for the explanation of the criteria for inclusion in the short list. You have previously indicated four criteria for calling the low in the gold market. Could we review and expand upon that. Is gold investment a bad idea? You have also indicated that there are three level of understanding this: mental,…
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Why Gold Bullion and Gold Shares Diverge
Q: Why do price and wave pattern often diverge between gold bullion and gold shares? A: Different market participants trade in the gold bullion verses the shares. They respond differently to market conditions based on different needs, perceptions, and subjective judgements. In gold mining shares, there is no central bank intervention. In the bullion market,…
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Gold Mining Shares and Bullion Diverge
It has never been the case that all gold mining shares make their lows at the same time. Some do so earlier and some later. It may be that ABX, the world’s largest gold miner, has already made its low. Time will tell. I am expecting one more low and a divergence between the bullion…