Commodity traders do not pick a side as markets can be traded from both sides when you have wild swings like we’re currently experiencing. Inside day in Crude with August ending 1.7% higher just below the 40 day MA. We suggest long exposure with a target of $102/barrel in the coming weeks. Natural gas gained nearly 4% today trading higher for the last six sessions. Our target was obtained today so we advised clients to exit the trade booking profits. On a setback we will likely re-position long in October contracts.
Stocks will finish down on the week but the fact the 50 and 100 day MA’s held to close out the week we may get a rally from here. Who knows certainly not me so we have no trade recommendations until we get either a bullish or bearish set up. The Loonie advanced to a three month high today…we used this as a selling opportunity for aggressive clients. We’ve placed various strategies for clients in both future and options for a possible break back near 1.0250/1.0200 in the coming weeks.
Gold finished near its highs but failed to make a new high gaining just shy of $5 today and $55 on the week. While $1600 is doable on this leg we feel a $30-40 correction is coming real soon…trade accordingly. On its highs September silver futures is bumping up against the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement line. A trade above $39.50 next stop should be $41.50 however my opinion for what its worth is a trade back near $37/ounce first…trade accordingly.
Clients are flat in cocoa taking a small loss on their longs today. We’re operating under the influence sugar reached an interim top this week. Some clients are positioned in bearish plays in October and March contracts. We’re anticipating a 7-10% correction from current levels. On a break lower in Ag in the next three weeks we will be a buyer ahead of the next USDA report. In a perfect world we would see at least a 30% correction of the most recent appreciation across this complex for an entry point…stay tuned.
Clients took off their August 30-yr bonds pits at cost this morning when the 20 day MA held. Stand clear of the long end but aggressive traders can fade rallies in the short end in long dated Euro- dollar futures or purchase at the money put options.
Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
(954) 929-9898
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